South West and South Wales economy likely to grow fastest over the next five years, new report reveals

Two new reports published last week show that the economy of South Wales and Western England is likely to grow faster than any other part of the UK economy outside of London over the next five years.

The reports have been commissioned by the Western Gateway and carried out by Hardisty Jones Associates & Oxford Economics and EY to give an up-to-date account of the area’s economic strengths as part of work to create a “Plan for Sustainable growth” for both regions.   

These reports estimate that South Wales and Western England are likely to grow by 1.4% per year between 2024 and 2029, outstripping the growth of other parts of the UK.  This has been put down to the area’s skilled work force, world leading industry and high-tech business with strong sectors in cyber, green energy, aerospace, creative and fintech. 

The area was also noted as being a high exporter, outperforming other parts of the UK, and producing over 6% of the UK’s total energy capacity. 

Despite this, the reports also show the area has been massively underinvested in. It estimates that companies in the area are missing out on between £3-9m in private sector investment per businesses every year on average when compared to other parts of the UK.  

These reports were launched last week at a meeting with the region’s businesses at Airbus’s Filton base in Bristol. 

The Western Gateway is the Pan-regional Partnership for South Wales and Western England which brings together local leaders, businesses and academics to help drive economic growth and support efforts to reach net zero. 

Sarah Williams-Gardener, Chair of the Western Gateway, said: “Here at the Western Gateway we are home to collaborative communities with a strong story to tell when it comes to our potential to deliver for the UK. As this report highlights, despite significant underinvestment it is estimated that South Wales and Western England are likely to grow by 1.4% per year between 2024 and 2029, making us the area most likely to grow outside of London over the coming months.  

“Our cross party group of leaders is ready to work with our colleagues across the nation alongside business and our great universities to become the drivers for our future economy playing our part in helping the UK deliver on its new National Mission for Growth. 

“To understand how you can play your part, and be part of our Plan for Sustainable Growth, we invite you to join us on 17 October at our 2024 Convention for the Western Gateway.” 

Cllr Mark Hawthorne, Vice Chair of the Western Gateway and Leader of Gloucestershire County Council, said: “These reports help to show the scale of the opportunity we have within our communities to drive many of the UK’s future industries but also highlight the challenges we need to work together on, in order to overcome them. 

“The launch is just the latest continuation of our work with local businesses to understand how we can work together as an area across politics to find solutions for challenges we all face.  We want to decarbonise at pace, create new opportunities for our communities and improve access for those at risk of being left behind.” 

Read the reports here:

Oxford Economics IER: The UK's Future Economy 

EY's Investment Flows and the Productivity Gap